The Worst Case Scenario: Another Look
Earlier this year, I posted four pieces about the potential for another Trump term and what I've called Civil War 2.0. I thought the worst-case scenario I wrote on February 5 was dire enough. It wasn't.
When I was an intelligence officer long ago, I was in the business of making predictions about potential threats. My focus, of course, was on foreign threats. J6 changed all of that for me. Earlier this year, I posted four pieces about the potential for another Trump term and what I've called Civil War 2.0. I thought the worst-case scenario I wrote on February 5 was dire enough. It wasn't.
A little over nine months ago, I published a Sentinel piece focused on the prospect of a Trump victory with a silver lining: Democrats retaking control of the House in a way that really forced Trump's hand and led to a brief but decisive civil war that resulted in Trump's overthrow by forces loyal to the Republic. The success of the NRCC in keeping the GOP in control of the House has obliterated that pleasant little fantasy of a quick end to Trumpism.
Because some readers of the Sentinel are new to the publication and lots of folks have recently exited what was once known as Twitter (and others also fleeing Threads), I thought this week would be a good one to revisit that "worst case scenario" piece to see what I got right, what I got wrong, and what predictions remain outstanding because Trump has yet to assume office.
Obviously, Democrats failing to retake the House is the first assumption/prediction that's gone up in smoke. That's going to have extremely dire consequences, because it means when it comes to getting money for deportations, finishing his idiotic border wall, etc., the GOP controlled Congress will likely give him whatever he wants.
There are parts of that predictive piece that I did get right:
Having dispatched his GOP primary opponents long before Super Tuesday 2024, Trump will have, by the time of the November 2024 election, completed his consolidation of control over the GOP at every level. The initial signs of his success were apparent in the border security dispute between Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden administration. Prior warnings about his proposed "revenge tour" will have proved insufficient to move soft-GOP or independent-leaning voters to oppose him at the ballot box.
Thus far, Trump's cabinet and sub-cabinet level announcements have been exactly what many have expected (loyalty above all, competence or experience not really required).
I'll be especially interested to see who he taps to run the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel (OLC), as that's the office that under the Bush 43 administration put out the now-infamous legal opinions that torture was not in fact torture depending on the interrogation technique used.
It will be Trump's OLC that will have the lead in authoring legal opinions designed to sanction the use of active duty military personnel for immigration round ups and deportations, among other things. And based on the long-standing Justice Department precedent of not prosecuting current or former federal employees who acted on the basis of an OLC opinion that was valid at the time it was issued (see again the Torture Memos episode), you can pretty much expect that anyone--military or civilian--who acts on Trump's orders to round up and deport people--even if they end up deporting people who are U.S. citizens--they won't spend a day in jail for having done so.
Pretty much all of the other predictions I made back in early February still belong in the future tense. Once Trump takes office and his Administration begins to act on his prior statements and campaign commitments, I'll be revisiting those predictions as well.
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